Global Leading Indicators

 The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico decreased by 0.5 percent in May 2022 to 109.8 (2016=100), after decreasing by 0.4 percent in April. However, the LEI grew by 0.9 percent in the six-month period from November 2021 to May 2022, a reversal from the 1.8 percent decline over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Mexico increased by 0.5 percent in May 2022 to 109.0 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.4 percent in April. The CEI grew by 2.7 percent in the six-month period from November 2021 to May 2022, following a 1.0 percent improvement between May and November 2021.

“While employment and industrial production remain strong and high oil prices support the economy, widespread weaknesses among leading indicators suggest growth in Mexico will slow in the near term, said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The Conference Board projects real GDP growth around 0.5 percent quarter-over-quarter before it slows further to 0.1 percent in the final quarter of the year.”

Mexico LEI decreased in April and May suggesting slower growth in the short-term

Declining manufacturing inventories were the main driver of the decrease in the LEI

The recent trajectory of the Mexico LEI points to a potential slowdown in growth ahead

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Mexico: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Mexico include: Industrial Production (Construction), Stock Prices, U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil, Manufacturing Inventories (Opinion Balance), Federal Funds Rate, and Real Exchange Rate.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/    

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