Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Spain declined by 0.4 percent in August 2022 to 97.3 (2016=100), after declining by 0.1 percent in July. The LEI decreased by 2.7 percent in the six-month period from February to August 2022, after decreasing by 0.4 percent over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Spain increased by 0.2 percent in August 2022 to 108.8 (2016=100), after a moderate decline of 0.1 percent in July. The CEI grew by 1.4 percent in the six-month period between February and August 2022, slower than the 2.5 percent increase over the previous six-month period.

“The trajectory of the LEI for Spain points to an economy losing its growth momentum in the months ahead,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director for Economics at The Conference Board. “High inflation, rising interest rates, and a projected Euro Area recession starting in the final quarter of 2022 suggest risk of an economic downturn in Spain are elevated. The Conference Board projects real GDP growth in Spain to stagnate in Q4 and Q1 ’23 with risks tilted to the downside in the near term.”

The Spain LEI declined again in August, reflecting slower growth ahead

The LEI has been on a downward trajectory in recent months, with weaknesses across the board

Declining growth in the LEI suggests recession risks persist 

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Spain: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Spain include: Capital Equipment, Component of Industrial Production, Spanish Contribution to Euro M2, Spanish Equity Price Index, Long Term Government Bond Yield (inverted), Order Books Survey     , and Job Placement.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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