Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

New York, February 12, 2024…The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Spain increased by 0.3 percent in December 2023 to 98.1 (2016=100), following a 0.7 percent rise in November. Despite the recent partial rebound, the LEI contracted by 0.6 percent in the second half of 2023, a faster rate of decline than the 0.2 percent contraction in the first half of the same year.   

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Spain rose slightly by 0.1 percent in December 2023 to 110.9 (2016=100), after a 0.2 percent increase in November. The CEI increased by 0.4 percent in the second half of 2023, slower than the 2.0 percent rise in the first half of that year.

“The LEI for Spain improved for a second month in December, suggesting that the downward trend observed over the past two years might be reversing,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “The gain was driven by positive developments in bond yields and the Spanish contribution to Euro M2, while non-financial components remained depressed. Despite the partial rebound in the LEI over the past two months, the overall trajectory remains unfavorable. The Conference Board currently expects real GDP growth in Spain to be 1.3 percent in 2024 following 2.5 percent growth in 2023.” 

The Spain LEI improved again in December

Financial components of the Spain LEI improved in December while nonfinancial components remained depressed

The Spain LEI no longer signaled recession in December, but remained negative posing some risk over the near term

Note: The chart illustrates the so-called 3D’s rule which is a reliable rule of thumb to interpret the duration, depth, and diffusion – the 3D’s – of a downward movement in the LEI. Duration refers to how long-lasting a decline in the index is, and depth denotes how large the decline is. Duration and depth are measured by the rate of change of the index over the last six months. Diffusion is a measure of how widespread the decline is (i.e., the diffusion index of the LEI ranges from 0 to 100 and numbers below 50 indicate most of the components are weakening). The 3D’s rule provides signals of impending recessions 1) when the diffusion index falls below the threshold of 50 (denoted by the black dotted line in the chart), and simultaneously 2) when the decline in the index over the most recent six months falls below the threshold of -1.9 percent. The red dotted line is drawn at the threshold value (measured by the median, -1.9 percent) on the months when both criteria are met simultaneously. Thus, the red dots signal a recession.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Spain

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Spain include: Capital Equipment, Component of Industrial Production, Spanish Contribution to Euro M2, Spanish Equity Price Index, Long Term Government Bond Yield (inverted), Order Books Survey, and Job Placement.

 To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org