Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Spain decreased by 0.1 percent in February 2022 to 100.3 (2016=100), following a 0.1 percent increase in January. Moreover, the LEI declined by 0.1 percent in the six-month period from August 2021 to February 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Spain increased by 0.6 percent in February 2022 to 107.5 (2016=100). The CEI grew by 2.7 percent in the six-month period between August 2021 to February 2022.

“A weakening labor market outlook was the primary factor for the February decrease in the LEI. Indeed, the recent trajectory of the LEI suggests headwinds to the economic outlook for Spain in early 2022. The February report did not reflect the negative effects of the war in Ukraine, which are likely to increase in the coming months.”

With the February decline, the recent trajectory of the LEI suggests increasing risks to the growth outlook in 2022

The Spain LEI points to increasing headwinds to economic growth in early 2022 

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Spain: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Spain include: Capital Equipment, Component of Industrial Production, Spanish Contribution to Euro M2, Spanish Equity Price Index, Long Term Government Bond Yield (inverted), Order Books Survey , and Job Placement.

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