The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the US Economy

March 12, 2025

Fed Policy Dilemma

The unpredictability of the new administration’s policies looms over the outlook. A combination of the imposition of additional tariffs on imports from China, substantial policy uncertainty, sizable pullback in consumer sentiment and spending since the beginning of the year, elevated geopolitical tensions and federal spending reduction initiatives led us to revise down our projections for growth over the forecast horizon. Simultaneously, both implemented and proposed trade, immigration and fiscal policies will likely raise inflation. The impact of tariffs, DOGE layoffs, and policy uncertainty may also weigh on payrolls in coming months and push the unemployment rate higher.