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Last Updated: February 2, 2024

ADDITIONAL INSIGHTS FOR WHAT'S AHEAD

Labor force participation for the prime-aged workforce approaches heights set 30 years ago. Older workers' participation rate has risen significantly in the last 30 years, but has trended downwards in recent months.

The ratio of job openings to hires, a proxy for the average time to fill a position, remains at a historically high level, but has come down in recent months. 

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey suggests that it is now easy to find a job, but harder than in recent months. Employers will likely continue to struggle to fill job vacancies.

Both the job openings rate and quits rate remain at a high level relative to history. 

Typically, it takes about four to seven years for unemployment to return to its natural rate, measured from the start of a recession. This time, the recovery was much shorter: unemployment fell below its natural rate in November of 2021.

Except for a few exceptions, employment has completely recovered from pandemic-related job loss and, in some cases, has grown quite significantly relative to pre-pandemic levels.

Employment in mining and logging, leisure and hospitality and manual services are still below pre-pandemic levels. Employment in all other industries has grown in the same period. The labor market remains resilient and has shown no signs of cooling off in recent months.

Leisure and hospitality, a large sector of in-person services, constitutes a smaller share of overall job growth relative to previous months. The most transitory aspects of job recovery related to the pandemic have subsided.

Recruiting difficulties remain at a high level, but have eased in recent months according to the NFIB.  Many people listed as unemployed are not seriously looking for a job.

While the robust labor market displays a historically low unemployment rate, some demographics are unemployed at a higher rate than others.