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Payrolls increased by 151k in February with healthcare continuing to lead sector gains. Strong government hiring over 2024, particularly at the state and local level, is likely to slow as pandemic-related funding concludes and uncertainty grows over future federal program funding.
While unemployment remains muted, the U-6 measure of underemployment shows an uptick in slack primarily from workers involuntarily part-time for economic reasons.
Wage growth has moderated but continues at an elevated pace of just over 4% annually in February. Recent data suggests wage pressures will continue to moderate slowly, with the potential to ease more quickly if the economy weakens more than anticipated.
Job openings stabilized after falling to a post-pandemic lowpoint in September 2024, suggesting that labor demand was poised to reaccelerate in 2025. JOLTS data through January show that hiring and separations remained flat to start the year. These data do not yet reflect rising economic uncertainty that is appearing in other indicators.
February household data showed substantial swings in the rates of workers moving into and out of employment. While February data did not fully reflect recently announced federal and private sector-layoffs, this data hints that growing policy uncertainty may be starting to weigh on hiring and workforce planning.
Federal layoffs are beginning to emerge in labor market data, with initial unemployment claims for federal workers rising throughout February. Upcoming reports will provide more insight into the scale and impact of these job cuts.
BRIEF
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