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The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI), a leading composite index for US employment, rose significantly in March following a small decrease in February. The uptick indicates that job growth will be strong over the coming months.
Despite the recent increase in COVID-19 infections, the vaccination campaign is progressing at a rate that should significantly reduce the spread of the virus in the near future. Labor intensive in-person services will continue to reopen, and consumers flush with cash due to a year of elevated savings and strong government stimulus will be able to spend more on things like travel, dining and entertainment. All this will lead to historically fast employment growth in the coming quarters. We expect the unemployment rate to reach about four percent a year from now, and to decline further throughout 2022. Tight labor markets will resurface over the coming year, leading to faster wage growth.
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