US Leading Indicators

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.6 percent in July 2024 to 100.4 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.2 percent in June. Over the six-month period ending in July 2024, the LEI fell by 2.1 percent, a smaller rate of decline than its −3.1 percent over the six-month period between July 2023 and January 2024.

“The LEI continues to fall on a month-over-month basis, but the six-month annual growth rate no longer signals recession ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “In July, weakness was widespread among non-financial components. A sharp deterioration in new orders, persistently weak consumer expectations of business conditions, and softer building permits and hours worked in manufacturing drove the decline, together with the still-negative yield spread. These data continue to suggest headwinds in economic growth going forward. The Conference Board expects US real GDP growth to slow over the next few quarters as consumers and businesses continue cutting spending and investments. US real GDP is expected to expand at a pace of 0.6 percent annualized in Q3 2024 and 1 percent annualized in Q4.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. was flat in July 2024 at 112.5 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.2 percent in June. The CEI grew by 0.9 percent in the six-month period between January and July of 2024, faster than its 0.5 percent growth rate over the previous six-month period. The CEI’s component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. All components improved in July, except for industrial production, which experienced its largest negative contribution to the CEI since January 2024.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. inched down by 0.1 percent in July 2024 to 119.6 (2016=100), partially reversing an increase of 0.2 percent in June. The LAG’s six-month growth rate softened to 0.6 percent over the six-month period ending in July 2024, about half the 1.1 percent increase over the six-month period from July 2023 to January of 2024.

The LEI’s annual growth rate has stabilized but remains negative, suggesting downward pressures on economic activity ahead