US Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in July

NEW YORK, August 19, 2021…The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for theU.S. increased by 0.9 percent in July to 116.0 (2016 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in June and a 1.2 percent increase in May.

“The U.S. LEI registered another large gain in July, with all components contributing positively,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The Leading Index’s overall upward trend, which started with the end of the pandemic-induced recession in April 2020, is consistent with strong economic growth in the second half of the year. While the Delta variant and/or rising inflation fears could create headwinds for the US economy in the near term, we expect real GDP growth for 2021 to reach 6.0 percent year-over-year, before easing to a still robust 4.0 percent growth rate for 2022.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.6 percent in July to 105.6 (2016 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in June and a 0.1 percent increase in May.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased by 0.6 percent in May to 106.5 (2016 = 100), after being unchanged in June and increasing 0.8 percent in May.

The next release is scheduled for Thursday, September 23 at 10 A.M. ET.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:

• Average weekly hours, manufacturing
• Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
• Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
• ISM® Index of New Orders
• Manufacturers’ new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
• Building permits, new private housing units
• Stock prices, 500 common stocks
• Leading Credit Index™
• Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
• Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org