US Consumer Confidence

Labor market optimism drove up confidence for a second straight month 

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in November to 111.7 (1985=100), up 2.1 points from 109.6 in October. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased by 4.8 points to 140.9. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions— ticked up 0.4 points to 92.3, well above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. The cutoff date for preliminary results was November 18, 2024.

“Consumer confidence continued to improve in November and reached the top of the range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “November’s increase was mainly driven by more positive consumer assessments of the present situation, particularly regarding the labor market. Compared to October, consumers were also substantially more optimistic about future job availability, which reached its highest level in almost three years. Meanwhile, consumers’ expectations about future business conditions were unchanged and they were slightly less positive about future income.”

Among age groups, November’s gains were led by a large jump in confidence for consumers under 35 years old. Meanwhile, confidence among consumers aged 35 to 54 declined slightly after surging last month. All income groups reported higher confidence except those at the very top (earning over $125K) and bottom (earning less than $15K). On a six-month moving average basis, householders aged under 35 and those earning over $100K remained the most confident.

Peterson added: “The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months fell further in November and was the lowest since we first asked the question in July 2022. Consumers’ assessments of their Family’s Current Financial Situation fell slightly but optimism for their finances over the next six months reached a new high. (These measures are not included in calculating the Consumer Confidence Index®).”

Consumers became even more optimistic about the stock market: 56.4% of consumers expected stock prices to increase over the year ahead, another record high for this measure. Only 21.3% expected stock prices to decline. The share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next 12 months declined to 43.6%. The share expecting lower rates increased to 34.6%, the highest since April 2020.

Meanwhile, average 12-month inflation expectations declined from 5.3% last month to 4.9% in November, the lowest since March 2020. In addition, references to inflation and prices declined in write-in responses, as attention and focus shifted to the US November elections. However, elevated prices remain top of mind: In a special question about concerns and hopes for 2025, consumers overwhelmingly selected higher prices as their top concern and lower prices as their top wish for the new year; this was true across all income and age groups. That same question found higher taxes, wars and conflict, and social unrest are other major—although less acute—concerns for consumers. Meanwhile, household finances completed the top of consumers’ wish list for 2025, including being able to save more money, paying lower taxes, and paying off debt.

On a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for homes stalled in November, while purchasing plans for autos were up slightly. When asked about plans to buy more durable goods or services over the next six months, consumers continued to express a slightly greater preference for purchasing goods. In addition, more consumers expressed uncertainty about future purchases. Consumer buying plans for most appliances and electronics were down. Regarding services, consumers’ priorities were little changed, but they planned to spend a bit less in most categories going forward, except for travel and health care.

Write-in responses about politics, including the November elections, surged to above 2020 levels but were below 2016 levels.

Present Situation
Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions improved in November.
• 21.3% of consumers said business conditions were “good,” down from 22.0% in October.
• 15.3% said business conditions were “bad,” down from 16.7%.

Consumers’ appraisals of the labor market improved in November.
• 33.4% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” down from 34.1% in October.
• 15.2% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” down from 17.6%.

Expectations Six Months Hence
Consumers remained optimistic about the business conditions outlook in November.
• 23.5% of consumers expected business conditions to improve, up from 21.1% in October.
• 15.2% expected business conditions to worsen, up from 13.0%.

Consumers’ assessments of the labor market outlook continued to improve.
• 21.7% of consumers expected more jobs to be available, up from 18.4% in October.
• 17.8% anticipated fewer jobs, up from 16.2%.

Consumers’ assessments of their income prospects were slightly down in November.
• 19.0% of consumers expected their incomes to increase, down from 19.5% in October.
• 11.8% expected their incomes to decrease, unchanged from October.

Assessment of Family Finances and Recession Risk
• Consumers’ assessment of their Family’s Current Financial Situation were slightly less positive.

• Consumers were more optimistic about their Family’s Expected Financial Situation in November.

• Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months fell to a new low in November.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on an online sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Toluna, a technology company that delivers real-time consumer insights and market research through its innovative technology, expertise, and panel of over 36 million consumers. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was November 18.

Source: November 2024 Consumer Confidence Survey®
The Conference Board

The Conference Board publishes the Consumer Confidence Index® at 10 a.m. ET on the last Tuesday of every month. Subscription information and the technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerdata.cfm.

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org.