Labor Markets Briefs

At the outset of 2017, many economists were concerned by the possibility that tighter labor markets would act to slow employment growth. Perhaps labor shortages will trigger the next recession as firms will cut back production in reaction to rising costs. Right now though the LEI is still signaling good economic times ahead. A long period of frustration with talent shortages and rising labor costs would likely be required for labor alone to be the next black swan.

This blog describes some of the trends and recent developments that may impact the prevalence of nontraditional workers in the future. Most trends point to a growing share of nontraditional workers, but some developments are likely to have a negative impact. Even when the direction of the impact is clear, there is a lot of uncertainty about the magnitude of the impact.

The Conference Board provides a state level view of 2017 consumption patterns, using their nowcasts of nominal PCE growth by state.

The economy is likely to keep growing above its long-term 2 percent trend in the next 1-2 years, but a very tight labor market and higher interest rate are likely to pressure stock prices.

With the time to fill positions skyrocketing, some employers may choose to compromise on the educational requirement of their new hires. This blog shows that some companies have already started.

In this blog we highlight from The Conference Board C-Suite Challenge™ 2018 the key insights related to labor markets.

The growth in the number of new retirees has increased and is expected to remain at a relatively high level.