Labor Markets Briefs

Through at least the next decade, human truck drivers, bus drivers and taxi drivers will remain in strong demand. And during that time, self-driving technology will put little, if any, dent in that demand.

In 2009, the US labor market was the weakest since the Great Depression. In 2019, after a decade of strong hiring and the retirement of about 3 million baby boomers a year, the US economy is experiencing the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years. Employers are experiencing historical difficulties in recruiting and retaining workers, especially in blue-collar and low-paid occupations. In the next 12 months, despite some slowing in economic growth, labor markets will get even tighter.

Over the past few years, many of the world’s top companies have reduced or eliminated the option to work from home. Bank of America, IBM and Aetna all made news over their decision to change course.

With labor markets tightening and labor costs rapidly rising in Central and Eastern Europe, the advantage of lower labor costs compared to the rest of the continent will further shrink over time and could mean that businesses will shift operations elsewhere.

Cities that are among the most well educated tend to attract a disproportionate share of headquarters jobs. For example, Washington, New York, San Francisco, and Minneapolis all have a far higher percentage of college educated workers than the national average. An exceptionally well-educated workforce is a stronger draw for firms making headquarters location decisions than one more typical of the population.

Employers are facing a prolonged tight labor market for the first time in an era when advanced remote working technologies are available. To address talent shortages, companies can use teleworking to broaden the pool of potential workers. Teleworking is especially playing an important role in addressing talent shortages in white-collar occupations, but less so among blue-collar and low-paid service occupations.

Spending on motorcycle sales are almost exclusively concentrated in middle-aged, white households. It turns out that in the next ten years, the number of consumers in this group is likely to shrink faster than any other population group in the US. We predict that these demographic shifts alone will lower spending on motorcycles by 3.7. Motor cycles are just one example of a product class where a core group of customers is aging out of a key demographic.