Will the War in Ukraine Lead to Recession?
CEOs Must Pivot and Adapt Amid Economic Fallout
Absent expansion into a broader conflict, we do not anticipate the war in Ukraine will cast the global economy back into recession. However, there likely will be significant drag on global GDP growth this year and possibly next, and serious increases in inflation for businesses and consumers. Moreover, central banks may tighten monetary policy to resist intensifying inflationary pressures, and regional labor market recoveries from the COVID-19 pandemic might be further delayed. Financial market volatility probably will persist. We update our global economic outlook to reflect the fallout from the crisis and discuss what CEOs should expect next.
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