Labor Markets Briefs

It is not news that the US labor market is very tight. That is, with the unemployment rate near historic lows, employers are facing significant recruitment and retention difficulties. What is less known is that the labor market is tighter for blue-collar and manual services jobs than for the highly educated white-collar jobs. The exact opposite of prevailing trends in recent decades.

The Conference Board Salary Increase Budget Survey, which was just released this week, provides a unique explanation for why wages have been accelerating more modestly than many analysts have expected in recent years: Employers have been slow to raise salary structures in their companies. So, while wages for new hires have been accelerating since 2011, salary increase budgets are holding back overall wage growth.

The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine™ (HWOL) Index has been declining for much of 2019, indicating a slowdown in employment growth. While the HWOL index is certainly weakening, it is nowhere near recession territory. The current decline is about the same as the slowdown in 2015-2016, but much smaller than that of the Great Recession.

Monthly reports on the number of new jobs and the unemployment rate can drown out important trends like these two: After four decades of worsening, wage inequality has started shrinking. And in a twist, America’s blue-collar workers are playing the biggest role in driving that reversal.

Now, more than in any other time during this decade, we see signs of a comeback in automation activity. The timing could not be better. Labor shortages are becoming a growing problem for the US economy, especially in jobs that do not require a college degree, which in large part are the jobs where automation is likely to have the most impact. From a demographic perspective, this problem is only going to get worse.

There are many anecdotes in the media today of employers across a range of industries wanting to hire more people, but not being able to find them: trucking companies facing driver shortages, retailers and restaurants being short-staffed, and construction companies and manufacturers encountering a limited supply of skilled or STEM-educated applicants.