Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for South Korea decreased by 0.8 percent in September to 105.4 (2016=100), following a 0.4 percent increase in August. The LEI is down by 2.6 percent in the six-month period from March to September 2022, following a 0.6 percent decrease over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for South Korea decreased by 1.0 percent in September to 107.3 (2016=100), following a 0.8 percent increase in August. The CEI declined by 0.7 percent in the six-month period from March to September 2022, a reversal from the 2.4 percent increase between September 2021 and March 2022.

“The LEI for South Korea declined sharply in September led by negative contributions from nearly all components, except for the Index of Inventories-to-Shipments,” said Casey Cloutier, Economic Research Analyst, at The Conference Board. “Weak performance of both financial and non-financial components suggests the economy in South Korea continues to experience headwinds to growth. Amid tightening monetary policy and declining exports due to slowing economic activity in China, The Conference Board projects a year-over-year real GDP increase of 1.8 percent in 2023.”

The Korea LEI continued its downward trajectory in September

Negative contributions from most components more than offset positive contributions from the Index of Inventories- to-Shipments

The LEI trajectory points to a slowdown in growth for Korea in the coming months

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for South Korea: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for South Korea include: Stock Prices, Yield of Government Public Bonds, Exports FOB, Value of Machinery Orders, Index of Inventories to Shipments, Private Construction Orders.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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