US Consumer and Business Confidence

CEOs and American consumers both see elevated risk of a US recession around the corner. 

More than 130 CEOs canvased by The Conference Board, in partnership with The Business Council, anticipate that the Fed’s tightening cycle will cause the US economy to dip into recession at some point. (See US CEO Confidence.) 

Currently, the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) suggests that central bank policy makers are generally in favor of raising the federal funds rates to 3.75-4.00 percent by early 2023. The Conference Board anticipates that raising interest rates to that level over the next six months will cause a shallow recession in the US and weigh on global growth. (See The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the US Economy and The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook.) 

While most consumers are not watching economic indicators as closely as CEOs of the world’s largest firms, they do sense trouble on the horizon. The May Consumer Confidence Index® dipped again overall and the component Consumer Expectations gauge fell further into territory signaling recession at some point within the next six months. (See US Consumer Confidence and Indications Podcast.)