Global Forecast Update

The Conference Board forecasts global GDP growth of 2.7 percent for 2022 and 2 percent for 2023. The global growth environment has rapidly deteriorated in recent months, most notably with the ongoing war in Ukraine, persistent inflation, and tightening global financial conditions. A recession in the US is anticipated before the end of 2022, and the economies of both Europe and China are expected to continue to slow due to a variety of factors.

While a global recession is not in our baseline scenario, the global economy is likely to move even closer to recessionary territory. A global recession is defined as global GDP growth well below 2 percent or negative global per capita income growth. In the postwar period this occurred only five times: in the late 70s, early 80s, early 90s, during the global financial crisis of 2008/09, and during the pandemic recession. The Conference Board forecasts global income to grow by 1.2 percent in 2023, well below the average of the last decade, but it likely will not contract.

See the latest update on our Global Economic Outlook.