The War in Ukraine's Threat to Global Food, Economic, and Political Security

Global food prices were already rising significantly before the invasion of Ukraine. However, the invasion set off another round of price increases for basic foodstuffs including grains and cooking oils such as sunflower oil. It also raised the cost of key inputs to food production, including energy and fertilizers. As the invasion continues, it is disrupting planting seasons and preventing harvested cereals from being exported around the world. 

The UN has warned of the distinct consequences of a severe food crisis this year in many countries around the world, notably in the Middle East and Africa, with millions of people at risk of food insecurity because of higher prices and lack of supply. This is because much of Russia and Ukraine’s grains are shipped to these economies, plus parts of Asia. Moreover, economies all over the world are suffering from rising food prices amid the war because food commodity prices are set on a global level. 

The lack of food risks not only higher inflation, but economic and political instability. Rioting and regime changes are scenarios that can play out in any economy. The US, Canada, India, and Western Europe are uniquely positioned to produce and export more grains to nations with insufficient supplies in the short run. Some economies also have government-run grain stores that can be tapped. Over the longer run, governments can support food security through limiting the amount of corn used for gasoline production, lowering tariffs on imported foods, eliminating taxes on food, and investing in infrastructure that helps lower the cost of food. 

For a deeper dive on the unfolding global food crisis see “What If Russia/Ukraine Grain Trade Halts?” and Policy Brief: “Breadbasket to Bread Lines” - Global Food Security After the Russian Invasion of Ukraine.