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The Conference Board publishes leading, coincident, and lagging indexes designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle for major economies around the world.
The LEI for France Unchanged in November
Latest Press Release
Updated: Friday, January 24, 2025
For Release 9:30 AM ET, January 24, 2025
Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.
This month’s release of the composite economic indexes incorporates annual benchmark revisions, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
For more information, please visit https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France remained unchanged in November 2024 at 107.4 (2016=100), after declining by 0.6% in October. However, the LEI for France contracted by 0.1% over the six-month period between May and November 2024, a substantial improvement from the 3.4% decline over the previous six-month period.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for France ticked up by 0.1% to 111.0 (2016=100) in November 2024, after also rising by 0.1% in October. The CEI for France increased by 0.4% over the six-month period from May to November 2024, accelerating from the 0.1% growth between November 2023 and May 2024.
“The France LEI was flat in November 2024, and remained at the lowest level in 2024,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “Beyond the flat outcome, four of the seven components were positive, with only stock prices, unemployment claims, and the yield spread weighing negatively. Moreover, the six-month growth trajectory of the France LEI showed some improvement from the rapid declines earlier in 2024. The Conference Board currently estimates that France GDP grew by 1.1% in 2024. However, against the backdrop of political and policy uncertainties, along with looming trade tensions with the new US administration, we expect growth to slow to 0.7% in 2025.”
The next release is scheduled for Friday, February 14, 2025, at 9:30 A.M. ET.
The France LEI was flat in November 2024
Most of the components of the France LEI were positive, or mildly negative in November
The six-month growth rate of the France LEI improved and has stopped signaling a recession since October
NOTE: The chart illustrates the so-called 3Ds—duration, depth, and diffusion—for interpreting a downward movement in the LEI. Duration refers to how long the decline has lasted. Depth denotes the size of decline. Duration and depth are measured by the rate of change of the index over the most recent six months. Diffusion is a measure of how widespread the decline is among the LEI’s component indicators—on a scale of 0 to 100, a diffusion index reading below 50 indicates most components are weakening.
The 3Ds rule signals an impending recession when: 1) the diffusion index lies below 50, shown by the black warning signal lines in the chart; and 2) the LEI’s six-month rate of decline falls below the threshold of −2.4 percent. The red recession signal lines indicate months when both criteria are met simultaneously—and thus that a recession is likely imminent or underway.
The composite business cycle indexes pre- and post- benchmark revisions: 1970-present
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for France
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.
The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around five months.
The seven components of Leading Economic Index® for France are:
- Yield Spread
- Stock Prices
- Building Permits
- New Unemployment Claims
- Industrial New Orders
- Production Expectations
- Ratio P/L Cost
The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for France are:
- Industrial Production
- Personal Consumption
- Employment (Private sector)
- Wages and Salaries
To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org
