Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the Euro Area declined by 0.4 percent in March 2024 to 99.4 (2016=100), following a 0.6 percent drop in February. As a result, the LEI contracted by 4.2 percent over the six-month period from September 2023 to March 2024, a smaller rate of decline than over the six-month period from March to September 2023.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for the Euro Area increased by 0.2 percent in March 2024, to 108.3 (2016=100), after no change in February. The CEI grew by 0.3 percent over the six-month period from September 2023 to March 2024, after contracting by 0.2 percent over the previous six-month period.

“The Euro Area LEI continued to drop in March” said Ian Hu, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “A large negative contribution from the yield spread, combined with weaker consumer expectations, manufacturing new orders and volume of order books drove the Index down. With the Index six-month growth rate still below its long-term trend and given the widespread weakness among its components, the LEI continues to signal the risk of a forthcoming recession in the Euro Area. Against this background of persisting headwinds to economic activity, the Conference Board currently projects a modest 0.6 percent real annual GDP growth in 2024.”

The Euro Area LEI continued to fall

Non-financial components and the yield spread led the decline of the LEI in March

The Euro Area LEI continues to flash for a possible forthcoming recession

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Euro Area

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 1 month. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area include: ECB Yield Spread, Consumer Expectation of General Economy, Manufacturing New Orders, Volume of Order Books, Business Expectations Survey, Eurostoxx Index, Systemic Stress Composite Indicator, Building Permits.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org