Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

New York, February 26, 2024…The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India rose by 0.8 percent in January 2024 to 156.3 (2016=100), marking the sixth consecutive monthly increase. As a result, the LEI rose by 3.0 percent in the six-month period from July 2023 to January 2024, slightly more than the 2.6 percent growth rate over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for India increased significantly by 3.3 percent in January 2024 to 144.7 (2016=100), more than reversing a decrease of 2.0 percent in December 2023. The CEI rose by 2.0 percent during the six-month period from July 2023 to January 2024, a smaller increase than the 2.7 percent rise over the prior six-month period between January and July 2023.

“The LEI for India continued to increase in January,” said Ian Hu, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “The strengths in the LEI components were widespread, and bank credit and PMI: Services contributed strongly to the rise in the LEI. Additionally, over a six-month period, six of the eight contributors to the leading economic index have increased. The LEI remains on a steady upward trajectory, and as such, The Conference Board forecasts annual real GDP to expand by 6.3 percent in 2024, after growing by 7.2 percent in 2023.

The India LEI remains on a firm upward trend

All components contributed positively to the LEI in January

The annual growth rate of the India LEI remains robust, suggesting favorable conditions ahead

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 8 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India include: Interest rate spread, BSE: Index, REER: 40 Currencies, M3: Bank Credit to Commercial Sector, Merchandise Exports, Cargo Handled, IP-Capital Goods, and India PMI: Services Business Activity.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org