Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India fell by 0.6 percent in March 2024 to 157.1 (2016=100), after steadily rising in the previous seven months. As a result, the LEI still rose by 2.5 percent over the six-month period from September 2023 to March 2024, a slower pace of growth than the 3.0 percent recorded over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India significantly fell by 4.2 percent in March 2024 to 145.3 (2016=100), partially reversing two substantial increases in February and January. The index rose only by 0.3 percent over the six-month period from September 2023 to March 2024, a significant slowdown from the 3.5 percent expansion over the prior six-month period.

“The LEI for India fell in March,” said Ian Hu, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “A substantial decrease in merchandise exports, as well as much smaller negative contributions from cargo handled and exchange rates, fueled the decline in the LEI. Despite this, the level of each component of the LEI remains higher than six months ago. Additionally, semiannual and annual changes continue to show positive growth, indicating that the ongoing economic expansion is likely to be sustained throughout 2024. As such, The Conference Board expects India to remain the fastest growing major economy in 2024 and grow at 7.1 percent after 7.7 percent last year.

The India LEI fell slightly amidst an otherwise firm upward trend

Mainly merchandise exports fueled the decline in March

Despite the decline in the India LEI, its annual growth rate remains robust

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 8 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India include: Interest rate spread, BSE: Index, REER: 40 Currencies, M3: Bank Credit to Commercial Sector, Merchandise Exports, Cargo Handled, IP-Capital Goods, and India PMI: Services Business Activity.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/