Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Japan increased by 0.1 percent in February 2024 to 87.6 (2016=100), after an upwardly revised 0.2 percent decrease in January. Despite this small uptick, the LEI for Japan declined by 1.4 percent over the six-month period ending in February 2024, after growing by 1.1 percent over the previous six months.

 The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Japan increased in February 2024 by 0.4 percent to 98.9 (2016=100), more than offsetting a decline of 0.3 percent in January. As a result, the CEI for Japan improved slightly by 0.1 percent over the six-month period from August 2023 to February 2024, after showing no growth between February and August 2023.

“The Japan LEI broke out of five consecutive monthly declines, inching up in February,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Global conditions continue to weigh on the export driven economy, as reflected in the further declines in New Orders for Machinery and Construction and the Index of Overtime Worked in Manufacturing components of the Index.  However, financial components improved and drove the Index up. The LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates were still negative in February but somewhat less so than in previous months. This suggests that headwinds to growth might start to ease in the near term. The Conference Board expects Japan GDP growth to recover from the temporary stall in the second half of 2023 but to remain modest, reaching only 1.0 percent overall in 2024."

The LEI for Japan improved slightly in February after five consecutive monthly declines