Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Japan decreased by 0.2 percent in March 2024 to 87.3 (2016=100), after no change in February. Over the six-month period ending in March 2024, the LEI for Japan declined by 1.5 percent, after growing by 0.3 percent over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Japan was unchanged in March 2024 at 98.7 (2016=100), after a downwardly revised 0.2 percent increase in February. As a result, the CEI for Japan fell by 0.1 percent over the six-month period from September 2023 to March 2024, continuing the 0.2 percent decline between March and September 2023.

"The LEI for Japan resumed its downward trend in March,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “A decline in housing starts, the increase in suspension of transactions, which is an equivalent of bankruptcies, and weaker labor productivity in manufacturing fueled March decline. The LEI has been decreasing slowly but continuously since September 2023, except in February when it was flat, resulting in negative six-month and annual growth rates of the LEI. However, the pace of contraction has slowed since a year ago. This suggests that headwinds to growth, while still present, have lessened a little. The recent depreciation of the yen, by over 10 percent since the beginning of the year against the dollar, which is not reflected in the LEI, is also likely to support exports. On the other hand, a persistently weak currency can have a negative impact on inflation, which would prompt stricter monetary stance, adding strain on growth. Overall, the Conference Board currently expects, that Japan annual GDP will grow at about 1.0 percent in 2024.”