Global Leading Indicators

For Release 10:30 AM ET, April 9, 2024

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for South Korea increased by 0.2 percent in February 2024 to 107.7 (2016=100), offsetting a 0.2 percent decrease in January. The LEI rose by 2.5 percent over the six-month period between August 2023 and February 2024, after contracting by 0.3 percent over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for South Korea increased by 0.4 percent to 108.8 (2016=100) in February 2024, after increasing by 0.3 percent in January. Over the six-month period between August 2023 and February 2024, the CEI rose by 1.2 percent, following a decrease of 0.6 percent over the previous six-month period.

“The South Korea LEI increased in February,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “The February gain in the LEI was driven by improvements in stock prices and in the index of inventories to shipments. Both on a six-month and annual basis, the index has been growing above its long-term trend, suggesting a strong economic outlook for South Korea. This is consistent with expected improvements in economic momentum in Korea’s key trade partners such as the US and China. The Conference Board currently forecasts annual GDP growth to accelerate to 1.8 percent in 2024 after 1.3 percent in 2023”.

The South Korea LEI Increased in February

Stock prices and the inventories to shipment index drove the February increase in the LEI

The annual growth rate of the LEI suggests continued economic expansion in near term 

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for South Korea

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for South Korea include: Stock Prices, Yield of Government Public Bonds, Exports FOB, Value of Machinery Orders, Index of Inventories to Shipments, Private Construction Orders.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org