Global Leading Indicators

For Release 10:30 AM ET, May 7, 2024

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for South Korea decreased by 0.5 percent in March 2024 to 107.3 (2016=100), more than offsetting a 0.3 percent increase in February. Despite this month-on-month decline, the LEI increased by 1.6 percent over the six-month period between September 2023 and March 2024, after contracting by 0.3 percent over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for South Korea fell by 1.5 percent to 106.8 (2016=100) in March 2024, after increasing by 0.3 percent in February. Over the six-month period between September 2023 and March 2024, the CEI contracted by 0.7 percent, following a decrease of 0.1 percent over the previous six-month period.

“The South Korea LEI declined in March” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “The March decrease was driven by weakness among all non-financial components. The LEI has been quite volatile recently, alternating month-on-month gains and declines. In these conditions, the six-month growth rate of the index and its year-over-year change are more robust indicators of the direction of the economy. They both continue to point to tailwinds to economic activity in South Korea but also show a potential easing in the growth momentum going forward. The Conference Board currently expects quarterly GDP growth to moderate after the strong increase in Q1 2024 which was driven largely by private consumption and construction.”

The South Korea LEI Declined in March

The March decline in the LEI was driven by all non-financial components

Although still positive, the annual growth rate of the LEI has been declining sharply

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for South Korea

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for South Korea include: Stock Prices, Yield of Government Public Bonds, Exports FOB, Value of Machinery Orders, Index of Inventories to Shipments, Private Construction Orders.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org