Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico increased by 0.1 percent in December 2023 to 121.3 (2016=100), after also increasing by 0.1 percent in November. The LEI fell by 2.4 percent in the second half of 2023, a much larger contraction than the 0.3 percent decrease in the first half of 2023.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Mexico also ticked up by 0.1 percent in December 2023 to 117.0 (2016=100), after similar increases in November and October. The CEI slowed to a 0.9 percent rate of growth in the second half of 2023, after expanding by 2.1 percent in the first half of last year.

“The Mexico LEI inched up in December for the second month in row, as stock prices rallied and the Peso strengthened further against the US dollar” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “However, because of the strong decline observed between August and October, the LEI contracted in the second half of 2023. This suggests that headwinds to growth may persist in the months ahead. The Conference Board expects real annual GDP growth for Mexico to slow down in 2024 to 2.1 percent after 3.2 percent in 2023.”

The Mexico LEI recovered slightly in December

Higher stock prices and the appreciation of the Peso drove the increase in the LEI in December

The annual growth rate for the Mexico LEI is still negative, suggesting persisting headwinds ahead

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Mexico include: Industrial Production (Construction), Stock Prices, U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil, Manufacturing Inventories (Opinion Balance), Federal Funds Rate, and Real Exchange Rate.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org