Global Leading Indicators

For Release 11:00 AM ET, April 17, 2024

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico decreased by 1.0 percent in February 2024 to 120.3 (2016=100), more than reversing a 0.2 percent increase in January. Moreover, the LEI contracted by 3.0 percent over the six-month period between August 2023 and February 2024, a much larger rate of decline than the 0.6 percent contraction over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Mexico remained unchanged at 116.8 (2016=100) in February 2024, after declining by 0.1 percent in January. The CEI grew at a meek 0.2 percent rate over the six-month period between August 2023 and February 2024, after growing at 2.2 percent over the previous six months.

“The Mexico LEI declined in February, more than reversing three previous consecutive increases,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “Apart from the price of oil and the federal funds rate, all of the LEI’s components weakened in February. Conspicuously, both for February and on a six-month basis, declining manufacturing inventories continue to be the main source of weakness in the index. On an annual basis, the growth of the LEI is also negative and signals persisting headwinds to growth ahead. The Conference Board currently forecasts real GDP growth to slow to 2.3 percent for 2024, after 3.2 percent the previous year.”

The Mexico LEI decreased sharply in February

Weakness in most components of the LEI drove February’s decline

The negative annual growth rate of the LEI suggests persisting headwinds to future economic activity

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Mexico include: Industrial Production (Construction), Stock Prices, U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil, Manufacturing Inventories (Opinion Balance), Federal Funds Rate, and Real Exchange Rate.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org