The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine^®

The Conference Board-Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) program measures the demand for labor in the United States using advertised online job vacancies. Help Wanted OnLine® reflects trends in employment opportunities across the US and may be a leading indicator of the labor market and overall economic activity. HWOL is a proprietary data set available by geography, occupation, industry, and skills. The Conference Board publishes monthly press releases on the latest changes in HWOL.

Help Wanted OnLine® data are for purposes of analysis only and not for redistribution, publishing, databasing, or public posting without express written permission. The Help Wanted OnLine® Index is produced in collaboration with Lightcast (formerly Emsi Burning Glass), the global leader in real-time labor market analytics. This collaboration enhances the Help Wanted OnLine® program by providing additional insights into important labor market trends.  For further information on purchasing data, please contact Jeanne Shu: Jeanne.Shu@tcb.org

Last Updated: March 14, 2023

INSIGHTS FOR WHAT'S AHEAD

THE DECLINE OF CITY CENTERS AND THE DONUT EFFECT

Demand for services and real estate has moved away from city centers, creating a “donut effect” where prices and activity are rising faster in surrounding suburbs. During the pandemic, this was caused by the virus’ economic impact, inability to access city center amenities, fear of virus spread, and the acceleration of work from home (WFH).[1]

Similarly, online labor demand has exceeded pre-pandemic levels throughout the country, but hiring activity rose more in less dense areas, namely in non-principal cities and smaller metro areas. Companies have taken advantage of WFH by expanding their hiring to areas outside of principal cities, capturing a larger talent pool that would have normally been inaccessible.

Comparing February 2020 to August 2022, the chart below shows that principal cities in the largest metro areas experienced the smallest rise in the number of online job ads relative to the other geographic groups in the United States and covers all occupations, although a similar trend is found in more granular occupation groupings. The geographic groups are:

• Principal cities in the largest 25 metro areas (e.g. New York City, Miami, Denver)
• The largest 25 metro areas excluding their principal cities, considered the periphery of these large metro areas
• The principal cities in the next 75 largest metro areas, ranked 26-100 (e.g. Nashville, Milwaukee, Greenville, SC)
• The next 75 largest metro areas excluding their principal cities, considered the periphery of these midsize metro areas
• The rest of the country – all smaller metro areas and non-metro area communities

Online labor demand rose greater in periphery cities and smaller metro areas compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Between February 2020 and August 2022, job growth in the principal cities of the large metro areas (2.7 percent growth) and the principal cities of the midsize metro areas (19.4 percent growth) was outpaced by growth in their respective periphery areas (respectively 16.6 percent and 41.8 percent). This is likely driven by increased spending in local communities and an increase in residents from principal cities that left for less densely populated regions, driving up demand for real estate, goods, and services in adjacent suburbs or nearby rural areas.

Research from The Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) is consistent, showing a reallocation of real estate demand from high-density neighborhoods to surrounding suburbs, mainly impacting large metro areas. During the pandemic, declines in rental prices were observed in high-density zip codes and central business districts in large metro areas along with relative price decreases compared to less dense areas of large metro areas.

In a post-pandemic world, this trend is expected to continue to a lesser degree. Many of the initial problems caused by the pandemic were temporary and have largely subsided after the availability of vaccines and general COVID “fatigue”.  However, the pandemic has accelerated the implementation of WFH in a variety of occupations, a development that is expected to stay and expand. Companies will likely look to take advantage of WFH in feasible areas in order to lower overhead cost, expand their potential talent pool, and reduce the time to fill an open position. This will increase the number of postings available outside of city centers relative to pre-pandemic levels, continuing the donut effect in the labor market sphere. Smaller cities and periphery areas may see higher levels of economic growth relative to city centers as jobs shift away from the larger city centers.

SUSTAINABILITY JOB TITLES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE

Corporate sustainability efforts have become increasingly prevalent as concerns over climate change and its effects continue to build. Companies are now needing to integrate sustainability into their business strategies and operations. Using The Conference Board®-Burning Glass® Help Wanted OnLine®(HWOL) dataset, we can measure the number of job titles in America containing the keyword “Sustainability” overtime.

Since the end of 2020, the share of postings for managerial-level positions with the keyword “Sustainability” and the number of employers that posted those online job ads has grown tremendously. Titles range across several management, professional, and sales occupations. Common job titles include “Chief Sustainability Officer”, “Senior Director of Sustainability”, and “Principal Sustainability Consultant”. The increase in demand for these positions is correlated with the third wave of corporate governance reform that includes environmental, social, and governance issues (ESG). This has been driven by concern over "long-term trends relating to climate and economic disparity", which was accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the following economic downturns.

Demand for these positions is expected to continue to rise, as companies find ways of integrating sustainability into their efforts and culture. According to a recent Conference Board survey[1], 72% of firms believe that ESG will have a significant impact on their boards over the next five years. Integrating sustainability involves not only redesigning business operations and organization, but the ability to accommodate multiple stakeholders. Companies are increasingly pressured by stockholders, employees, consumers, and reporting frameworks/rating agencies to incorporate sustainable business practices. This requires firms to hire more positions that can effectively deal with inevitable future sustainability challenges. Visit The Conference Board's ESG Center and Sustainability Hub to learn more.

Using The Conference Board®-Burning Glass® Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) dataset, we can measure which job titles in corporate America are becoming popular over time.

Before the pandemic, demand for managerial-level positions with the keyword “Diversity” and the number of employers that posted online job ads with those titles grew marginally. However, demand for these positions increased dramatically increased in 2020 and 2021. Demand growth aligned closely with the murder of George Floyd and subsequent anti-police brutality protests that began in late May 2020, signaling a need for companies to show a greater commitment to diversity, equity, and inclusion to attract and retain a diverse staff. Between May 2020 and May 2021, both the share of online job ad titles with the keyword “Diversity” and the number of employers posting those job ads increased significantly. Common job titles include “Chief Diversity Officer”, “Director of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion”, and “Vice President of Diversity & Inclusion”.

Since then, demand for these positions have fallen off slightly. However, it is unlikely for these job titles to decrease back to 2019 levels, as companies need DEI leadership to continue to attract, retain, and develop their staff. To learn more about how DEI can help organizations, visit The Conference Board's Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Hub.

EXPANSION OF WEST COAST TECH COMPANIES

Tech companies headquartered on the West Coast (i.e. California, Washington, and Oregon) are increasing hiring to other parts of the country. Shown in the chart below, the share of West Coast tech companies’ online job postings for positions located in other regions has significantly increased.

West Coast tech companies have shifted demand for tech workers, business and financial professionals, lawyers, and managers to other parts of the country. With the rise in remote work since the pandemic, this trend is likely to continue, and companies will have increased competition from large tech companies for local talent.

West Coast tech companies are increasing hiring to other parts of the country

FRONTIER TECH METRO AREAS

Tech occupations in metro areas along the East and West Coast and in Texas demand more coveted skills. Shown in the figure below is the percent of online tech job ads from 2019 to October 2021 that mention at least 1 of the top 100 fastest growing tech skills (e.g., TypeScript, DevOps). Individual skills mentioned in online job ads are parsed and categorized in the HWOL dataset. These skills are then calculated as a share to determine which skills are mentioned more in online job ads relative to others in tech occupations (Computer and Mathematical occupations, excluding Actuaries). The top 100 skills with the largest growth in share from 2019 to the last 12-months ending in October 2021 define the fastest growing tech skills. Metro areas with a higher share of the fastest growing skills suggests that the most advanced tech work is being done in these locations.

San Francisco and Seattle are leaders where nearly 50 percent of all tech ads demand at least 1 of the top 100 fastest growing tech skills. Metro areas in Texas, including Austin and Dallas, rank high along with Denver, New York, Boston, and Washington, DC. The Midwest and South (excluding North Carolina and Atlanta) generally underperform where less than 35 percent of tech ads demand these growing tech skills in most metro areas. Fayetteville, AR notably outperforms many larger areas due to the significant presence of Walmart and supporting companies.

Tech ads on the East and West Coast and in Texas lead the country in demand for growing tech skills, while the Midwest and South lag behind