Global Leading Indicators

This month’s release of the composite economic indexes incorporates annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, declined by 1.1% in December 2024 to 121.5 (2016=100), following a decrease of 0.4% in November. As a result, the LEI contracted by 1.1% over the second half of 2024, a larger rate of decline than the 0.2% contraction over the first half of 2024.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, declined by 1.0% in December 2024 to 113.4 (2016=100), after decreasing by 0.8% in November. Despite the consecutive declines, the CEI expanded by 0.3% over the last six months of 2024, compared to 1.8% growth over the first half of the year.

“The Brazil LEI declined sharply in December,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate at The Conference Board. “This fifth consecutive monthly decline was driven by weakness in the financial components of the Index. This likely reflects the instability in financial markets due to concerns about inflation and fiscal developments, especially that the fiscal consolidation package passed late December has been considered insufficient. Additionally, consumer expectations deteriorated in December. Moreover, the LEI’s annual growth rate turned negative, suggesting headwinds to growth going forward. The BCB had already implemented record-high monetary interventions, however, worsening financial market and consumer sentiment may create more pressure on economic activity.”

The next release is scheduled for Friday, February 14, 2025 at 10 A.M. ET.