Global Leading Indicators

For Release 9:30 AM ET, December 16, 2024

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

Next month’s release of the composite economic indexes will incorporate annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France declined by 0.6% in October 2024 to 109.1 (2016=100), continuing the September 0.2% decline (based on revised data). The LEI for France contracted by 0.9% over the six-month period between April and October 2024, still an improvement from the 2.9% decline over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for France ticked up by 0.1% to 111.3 (2016=100) in October 2024, after no change in September. The CEI for France rose by 0.1% over the six-month period from April to October 2024, after growing by 0.4% between October 2023 and March 2024.

“The France LEI declined again in October, reaching the lowest level in four years,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “The weakness was widespread with new industrial orders, production expectations, new unemployment claims, and the yield spread contributing to the decline. Growing uncertainties regarding the political situation and the 2025 budget weighed on the business expectations components of the index while the rebound in unemployment claims likely reflects the end of the Olympic Games temporary boost. Following some revisions to the index based on newly released data for Q3, the six-month growth rate of the France LEI showed some improvement from the rapid declines earlier in the year. However, it remained negative and still warned of headwinds to economic growth ahead. The Conference Board currently expects France GDP to grow by 1.2% in 2024 thanks to the high consumption associated with the Olympics games that led to sizable GDP growth in Q3. Growth is however expected to slow to 0.7% in 2025 in a context of fiscal consolidation and looming trade tensions.”

The next release is scheduled for Friday, January 24, 2025, at 9:30 A.M. ET.