Email
Linkedin
Facebook
Twitter
Copy Link
Loading...
For Release 9:30 AM ET, January 21, 2024
Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.
This month’s release of the composite economic indexes incorporates annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.
For more information, please visit https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Germany declined by 0.5% in November 2024 to 87.1 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.2% in October. Over the six-month period between May and November 2024, the LEI for Germany contracted by 0.9%, a slightly slower decline than the 1.3% contraction over the previous six-month period, between November 2023 and May 2024.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany rose by 0.1% in November 2024 to 103.6 (2016=100), reversing a 0.1% decline October. The CEI for Germany was flat from May to November 2024, a positive turn from the 0.2% decrease over the previous six-month period.
“The LEI for Germany declined in November 2024, erasing all the gains reported in September and October,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “The September-October rebound was short lived. Consumer confidence, that had improved in October, weakened again following the political instability that resulted from the collapse of the governing coalition. Meanwhile, the negative yield spread continued to weigh on the Index. In addition, stock prices and new orders for investment goods, which supported the Index in recent months, also contributed negatively potentially reflecting the political crisis and trade uncertainties associated with the tariff announcements by the incoming US administration. After a contraction of 0.2% in 2024, the Conference Board currently projects German real GDP growth to remain weak in 2025 at 0.4%.”
The next release is scheduled for Monday, February 17, 2025, at 9:30 A.M. ET.
NOTE: The chart illustrates the so-called 3Ds—duration, depth, and diffusion—for interpreting a downward movement in the LEI. Duration refers to how long the decline has lasted. Depth denotes the size of decline. Duration and depth are measured by the rate of change of the index over the most recent six months. Diffusion is a measure of how widespread the decline is among the LEI’s component indicators—on a scale of 0 to 100, a diffusion index reading below 50 indicates most components are weakening.
The 3Ds rule signals an impending recession when: 1) the diffusion index lies below 50, shown by the black warning signal lines in the chart; and 2) the LEI’s six-month rate of decline falls below the threshold of −4.6 percent. The red recession signal lines indicate months when both criteria are met simultaneously—and thus that a recession is likely imminent or underway.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Germany
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.
The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around five months.
The seven components of Leading Economic Index® for Germany are:
The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for Germany are:
To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org
With graph and summary table
January 21, 2025
Connect and be informed about this topic through webcasts, virtual events and conferences
PRESS RELEASE
The LEI for Germany Declined in November
January 21, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Mexico Decreased in December
January 21, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for the UK Declined in November
January 17, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Australia Jumped Up in November
January 16, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Spain Unchanged in November
January 15, 2025
PRESS RELEASE
LEI for Brazil Declined in December
January 15, 2025
All release times displayed are Eastern Time
Charts
Recession and growth trackers are analytical tools to visualize where the economy is and where it is headed.
LEARN MORE
January 22, 2025 | Database
Business & Economics Portfolio
January 10, 2025 | Database
December 23, 2024 | Report
The Economy Stabilized in August but Outlook Remains Weak
September 27, 2023 | Report
China's Economic Recovery Continues to Stutter (Economy Watch: China View, June 2023)
June 30, 2023 | Report
Leading Economic Indicators and the Oncoming Recession
December 07, 2022 | Report
The Evolving Economic Outlook for Europe
July 10, 2024 11:00 AM ET (New York)
Is a Global Recession on the Horizon?
July 13, 2022 11:00 AM ET (New York)
