China Center Chart Dive: A Balancing Act—Tightening Credit in Financial Markets, Pushing Credit into the Corporate Sector

Beginning late last year, the Chinese government signaled a policy shift from “pro-growth” to “risk containment.” The central bank was among the first to act. To curb the risks emanating from excessive leverage in financial markets, the PBoC induced a liquidity squeeze in Q4 that pushed up the short-term borrowing costs in the money market. Then in late January and early February of this year, the PBoC raised the interest rates on its short-term lending facilities to the commercial banks. The rate increases were small, but the policy signal is considered significant. “Tightening” discussions have occupied the press, and some analysts foresee broader monetary tightening, i.e., an increase of the one-year policy lending rate. Developments here are important for The Conference Board members, as supportive monetary policy in 2016 resulted in better-than-expected demand conditions for many MNCs.