US CEOs say they are preparing for a brief and shallow recession

The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™ in collaboration with The Business Council declined for the fifth consecutive quarter in Q3 2022 and has hit lows not seen since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. These readings are consistent with prior periods of economic contraction. 

The Q3 survey asked CEOs to describe the economic conditions they are preparing to face over the next 12-18 months.  An overwhelming majority (93%) said they were preparing for a recession, while only 7 percent said they do not expect a recession. Notably, 81 percent said they expect the downturn to be brief and shallow, vs. 12 percent who said they expected a deep recession. Thus far, however, CEOs do not seem to be experiencing the recessionary conditions that typified recent contractions. In fact, three-quarters of CEOs say demand has risen or held steady over the past three months. 

This assessment is largely consistent with The Conference Board’s most recent US economic forecast, which calls for a recession to begin before the end of 2022. 

For more information on the most recent Measure of CEO Confidence™, please visit our website.