The Conference Board China Economy Watch (April 2020 Data)
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Economy Watch | China

Monthly updates on the state of the economy in China

The Conference Board China Economy Watch (April 2020 Data)

May 29, 2020 | Brief

 

  • Impact of COVID-19 crisis on the Chinese Economy – Economic recovery continued in April but proceeded more quickly in industrial production than in services. In the near-term, the unfolding collapse in global trade plus persistent domestic labor market weakness will undermine full recovery. The 13th National People's Congress (NPC) on May 22 did not set an explicit GDP growth target for the year – a significant breakpoint for China, and strong evidence of the high economic stress and uncertainty at this juncture. We estimate that China’s aggregate growth may not return to the pre-virus level until Q4 2020, at the earliest. 

 

  • Investment Trends – Record-high credit expansion has led to a robust recovery in infrastructure construction and real estate development, but the weakening internal and external demand outlook continues to drag on manufacturing investment. 

 

  • Consumption Trends – Retail sales growth continued improving in April but is still notably under the pre-crisis growth rate. Chinese consumers are likely to remain cautious in the coming quarters due to heightened insecurity about both job prospects and income growth. 

 

  • Trade Trends – April export growth beat expectations, probably due to backlog processing. Export data are expected to worsen significantly in the coming months due to the pandemic’s impacts on China’s exports markets. Depending on virus containment efficacy and re-opening measures, these negative impacts should begin to gradually moderate in the 2H, but will last well into 2021.

 

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AUTHOR

YuanGao

Former Senior Economist, China Center for Economics and Business
The Conference Board


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