Indicators suggest a limited decline in activity in reaction to the November lockdown, especially compared to the first lockdown in the spring of 2020. Vaccine deployment in the UK as of December 8 and in the rest of Europe starting in January strengthens the base case scenario, where expected growth for 2021 is 5 percent for the UK and 4.7 percent for the Euro Area. Yet, downside risks remain due to uncertainty around the vaccination programs. Nonetheless, CEOs in Europe report increases in capital investment plans and sales expectations, while employment is expected to decline in the next six months.