Data on retail trade growth show a strong contraction for the month of April. However, the gradual reopening of many European economies in May could prepare the way for the bottoming out of the downturn at the start of Q2. Consumers, however, are likely to remain cautious. Meanwhile, Google mobility data show that business activity has been normalizing in Germany, followed by Italy and France; less so in the UK. On the policy front, EU leaders will discuss the Commission proposal for a large Recovery Fund to stimulate the economy, but that proposal will face strong opposition. The bulk of recovery spending remains national for now.