June 2024 | Brief
The US economy started 2024 on a softer note than anticipated as elevated inflation and interest rates continued to weigh on growth. While we do not forecast a recession in 2024, we do expect consumer spending growth to cool further and for overall GDP growth to slow to under 1% over the Q2 to Q3 2024 period. Following stalled progress on inflation in Q1 2024, April & May data show renewed relief. However, we do not expect the Fed’s 2% target to be achieved until Q2 2025. Interest rates should fall starting in late 2024 but may ultimately stabilize at levels exceeding pre-pandemic averages.
Economy Watch: US View (May 2024)
May 21, 2024
Economy Watch: US View (April 2024)
April 16, 2024
Economy Watch: US View (March 2024)
March 19, 2024
Economy Watch: US View (February 2024)
February 22, 2024
Economy Watch: US View (January 2024)
January 15, 2024
Economy Watch: US View (December 2023)
December 21, 2023