Labor Markets Briefs

Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®™:

• February payrolls increased by 151,000, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% within a Household Survey showing employment losses of 588,000—an early sign of labor market wavering.
• While the impact of federal disruptions was limited in February’s report, policy uncertainty appears to have begun weighing on business and consumer sentiment with a noticeable uptick in layoffs in February despite healthy payroll gains.
• The March report is expected to show greater impact from federal hiring freezes, job cuts, and funding disruptions, in addition to capturing more of the private-sector layoffs announced in late February.
• The decline in aggregate weekly hours compounds February data that point to slower GDP growth in Q1.

Figure 1. Slowing payroll growth concentrated in sectors

Download Brief