Global Leading Indicators

For Release 11:00 AM ET, August 20, 2024

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico declined by 2.1 percent in June 2024 to 116.9 (2016=100), after decreasing by 0.5 percent in May. As a result, the LEI declined by 3.8 percent over the first half of 2024, a much larger contraction than the 2.3 percent decline over the second half of 2023.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Mexico ticked up by 0.1 percent in June 2024 to 117.5 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.2 percent in May. Overall, the CEI expanded by 0.5 percent over the first half of this year, a slower rate of growth than the 0.9 percent increase over the second half of last year.

“The Mexico LEI continued its downward trend with a sharp drop in June,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “Marking the fifth consecutive month of decline, this was the largest contraction since the spring of 2020. Aside from the neutral contribution from the federal funds rate, all components contributed negatively in June. The depreciation of the peso vis-a-vis the US dollar (by over 7 percent in June in both nominal and real terms) weighed especially on the Index, as did the opinion balance on manufacturing inventories. Both the six-month and annual growth rates became more negative, signaling headwinds to GDP growth ahead after an already relatively weak first half of 2024. The Conference Board currently expects annual real GDP to grow at a meek 1.6 percent in 2024, compared to 3.2 percent in 2023.”

The next release is scheduled for Monday, September 16, 2024, at 11 A.M. ET.