Economic Data & Analysis

US Consumers Plan to Spend an Average of $73 Less Than Last Year 

According to The Conference Board Holiday Spending Survey, the average US consumer intends to spend $990 on holiday-related purchases in 2025. That’s down 6.9% from $1063 in 2024 and close to holiday spending intentions in 2023 ($985), but lower than in 2022 ($1,006) and 2021 ($1,022).

Consumers intend to spend $650 on gifts this year, down 3.9% from $677 last year and the lowest since 2022. Meanwhile, budgets for non-gift items—including food, decorations, and wrapping paper—are down 12% at $340. After adjusting for inflation, these figures are even lower at $513 for gifts and $268 for non-gift items in constant 2017 dollars, both multi-year lows. 

“US consumers remain cautious heading into the holiday season,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Holiday Spending Survey shows Americans will approach gift-giving and celebrations with restraint this season, as several years of relatively high inflation have raised price levels and squeezed consumers’ wallets. Once accounting for inflation, planned holiday spending is well below pre-pandemic levels, with younger and wealthier consumers cutting back the most. By contrast, consumers over 65 and those earning under $50K expect to spend more overall in 2025 after cutting last year.”

Guichard added: “In order to fit purchases into tighter budgets, consumers’ spending decisions will be driven by promotions and getting the most out of every dollar. Overall, suggestions from AI and influencers will play only a marginal role in spending decisions, though younger age groups are more receptive. Consumers also said they are focused on giving their family and friends items they need this year rather than items they want. In addition to seeking promotions, consumers say they are likely to buy fewer goods if the price of imported items is inflated by tariffs. Lastly, just 30% of consumers plan to travel this holiday season, down slightly from 2024.”

Among the other key findings in the survey:

Young and wealthy consumers plan to spend less this year

• Consumers under 35 are driving reduced spending on gifts in 2025, while those aged 35 to 45and 55 to 64 are driving the decline in spending on non-gift items.
• Only consumers over 65 are planning to spend more on both gifts and non-gift items this year than last year.
• Consumers earning $75–100K and those earning over $125K plan to reduce holiday spending this year, cutting both gift and non-gift expenses.
• Consumers earning less than $50K are planning to spend a bit more on gifts and non-gift items this year, while those earning $100–125K plan to spend more on gifts but much less on non-gift items.

Despite tariffs, most holiday shopping will be done in Q4 2025

• Most holiday shopping is planned for November, likely to capture Black Friday deals after Thanksgiving. But almost 40% of consumers will continue to shop in December.
• Less than 10% of consumers started their holiday shopping in the first half of 2025, suggesting little evidence of advance purchases ahead of tariffs.
• Consumers over 55 were the least likely to start their holiday shopping early (less than 5%), while those under 35 were the most likely to have done so (almost 17%).

Consumers are budget-conscious and looking for bargains 

• Consumers list getting the most out of every dollar and discounts and promotions as the top 2 factors driving their spending decisions in 2025. Likewise, they prefer to give gifts that are needed instead of wanted.
• Suggestions from AI and social media influencers will only play a limited role in spending decisions—around 5% of consumers named them as top factors. However, that share is roughly double for consumers under 35.
• Consumers below age 35 are also more likely to indulge in small luxuries—13.1% vs 9.6% overall.
• If the price of imported goods is inflated by tariffs, then 54% of consumers would respond by looking to buy items on sale, while 37% would buy fewer goods.

Buying gifts online remains widely popular

• 43% of consumers expect to purchase at least half of their gifts online this year, unchanged from 2024. That share jumps to close to 54% for consumers earning over $125K.
• 9% do not plan to buy any gifts online, a tad higher than last year.

Purchasing plans reveal a preference for toys, travel, and gift cards

• Consumers plan to give more toys and games, vacation and travel, and gift cards in 2025 than in 2024. Toys and games jumped from third to first place in 2025 among buying intentions.
• Plans to give beauty products and clothing increased the most over last year.
• Consumers are less likely to give books/music/DVDs, tools and hardware, and sporting goods than last year.

Most consumers plan to stay home or near home for the holidays

• 70% of consumers do not intend to travel for the holidays, compared to 69% last year.
• Almost half of those traveling will be on the road—whether driving themselves, using ride shares, or taking the bus.
• 45% of consumers who plan to travel during the holidays will travel by plane, up from 43% last year.

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What's Ahead^®®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States. TCB.org