The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Increased in December

Index Ends 2024 at Six-Month High

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NOTE: This month’s release will incorporate annual revisions of standardization factors to the Employment Trends Index, which bring it up to date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the index. The standardization factors, known as volatility adjustment factors, are done by calculating the standard deviation of the monthly percent change in each component. The updated period used for calculating the standardization factors is November 1973 to December 2023. The standardization factors are then used to construct the index from November 1973 to present. As a result, the revised index, in levels and month-on-month changes, is not directly comparable to those issued prior to this annual revision. For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) ticked up in December to 109.70, from a downwardly revised 109.45 in November. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for payroll employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or losses is about to occur in the coming months.

“The ETI extended its streak of gains to three months in December,” said Mitchell Barnes, Economist at The Conference Board. “That closes 2024 with the index at its highest level since June, suggesting that the steady labor market normalization we’ve seen since 2022 may have reached its nadir in mid-2024. The slight improvement in the ETI we’ve seen since reflects the labor market’s resilience entering 2025.”

Growing confidence in the current and future labor market continues to support stability in the ETI. The share of consumers who report ‘jobs are hard to get’—an ETI component from the Consumer Confidence Survey®—has fallen for three consecutive months to 14.8% in December, down from 18.6% in September. That matches measures of employer confidence and the unexpected rebound in job openings, which reached more than 8 million in November for the first time since May.

Barnes added: “Observers’ recent concerns around unemployment and broader softening appear to have moderated, with the labor market coming into better balance. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, on a 4-week moving average basis through the first week of January, stand at the lowest level since last April, while the share of involuntary part-time workers has declined for four months in a row. Employment in the temporary-help industry has also showed two consecutive months of expansion amid broader hiring gains in November and December.”

“December data highlights that the labor market continues on stable footing even after a long period of normalization during the post-pandemic recovery,” Barnes concluded. “High employment and wage growth have continued to support strong consumer spending and we expect labor demand to remain stable as businesses await an uncertain policy and economic environment next year.”

December’s increase in the Employment Trends Index was driven by positive contributions from five of its eight components: Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, Industrial Production, Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get”, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, and Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight leading indicators of employment, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index ™, January 2000 to Present

The eight leading indicators of employment aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
• Job Openings (BLS)*
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**

*Statistical imputation for the recent month
**Statistical imputation for two most recent months

The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET, on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm. 

About The Conference Board
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Employment Trends Index (ETI)™ 2025 Publication Schedule