August US leading index points to continued economic growth

The Conference Bord Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US rose sharply in August and remains on a rapidly rising trajectory. The strengths among the leading indicators remained widespread in recent months. The gain in August was fueled by positive contributions from all components of the LEI except for consumer expectations for business conditions and average weekly manufacturing hours. The LEI is a gauge of the economic cycle in the next six to nine months.

As the severity of the current wave of infections ebbs over the coming weeks and months, the underlying short-term growth drivers that the LEI monitors suggest economic growth should remain robust heading into the new year. While the Delta variant—alongside rising inflation fears—could create headwinds for labor markets and the consumer spending outlook in the near term, the trend in the LEI is consistent with strong economic growth in the reminder of the year. Real GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach nearly 6.0 percent year-over-year, before easing to a growth rate about 4.0 percent for 2022.

The next release of The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index® for the United States can be found here on October 21, 2021.

The LEI and related business cycle indicators (BCI) databases can be found here.