How Might the World Fall Back into Recession?

Repeated shocks, geopolitical tensions, and restrictive monetary and fiscal policy decisions raise the specter of global recession. While not our base case forecast, the occurrence of one extreme event, or even a combination of several smaller unfavorable events, could thrust the world back into recession following the spectacular recovery from the pandemic.

The Conference Board has modeled plausible scenarios that might lead the global economy, as well as individual economies, including the US, China, and the Euro Area, into recession within the next 18 months. We also consider “stagflation”—a prolonged period of very low growth and high inflation—which on a spectrum of bad events is just as undesirable as recession.

For more information about our recession scenarios, members can access StraightTalk® Wide Bands of Uncertainty.