- A slower and more volatile LEI for the Euro Area signals moderate growth in the near term
- Given the strong growth registered during the first quarter, GDP may be above our 1.6 percent projection in 2011 even if the global slowdown weighs on exports
- Headwinds to domestic demand – like the debt crisis and the uncertain inflation outlook – represent a downside risk for 2012
- Of course, the headline number continues to hide divergence between core and peripheral countries, but an improved framework should limit the tensions within the Euro Area
