The Conference Board forecasts that economic weakness will intensify and spread more widely throughout the US economy over the coming months, leading to a recession starting in mid-2023. While consumer spending activity has cooled following a large spike in January, it has not fallen off as much as previously forecasted. Because of this we are raising our Q1 2023 real GDP forecast from 1.0 percent to 2.0 percent. However, we are also downgrading our forecast for Q2 2023 from -0.9 percent to -1.8 percent. This is partially due to reverberations associated with the banking crisis. On inflation, we expect to see progress over the coming quarters, but the path will be bumpy. We forecast two additional 25 bps hikes from the Fed and no rate cuts until 2024.