Economy Watch | United States

Economy Watch: US View (February 2024)

February 22, 2024

US economic growth entered 2024 on a strong footing. While we forecast that a slowdown in growth is likely, we no longer expect an outright recession. Consumer spending held up well in 2023, but headwinds associated with high interest rates, rising debt, and falling savings are concerning. Trends in income growth will be important this year. The US labor market is resilient, wage growth is elevated, and layoffs are isolated. However, we do expect things to cool somewhat over the course of this year. On inflation, good progress is being made, but the path to 2% will be bumpy. We expect the Fed to begin cutting interest rates in June.