US economic growth will slow over the course of this year and a shallow recession will likely follow in late 2022 and early 2023. This downgrade to our outlook is associated with persistent inflation and rising hawkishness by the Federal Reserve. The Conference Board does not believe that the US economy is currently in a recession. We forecast that US Real GDP growth will rise to 1.9 percent (quarter-over-quarter, annualized rate) in Q2 2022, vs. -1.5 percent growth in Q1 2022. Headwinds from inflation and interest rates are likely to significantly curb consumer spending and business investment over the coming quarters. Annual growth in 2022 should come in at 2.0 percent (year-over-year) and we expect growth of 0.6 percent (year-over-year) in 2023.