The Conference Board forecasts that economic weakness will intensify and spread more widely throughout the US economy over the coming months, leading to a recession. However, momentum in some economic indicators has led us to postpone our recession call by a quarter. This results in an upgrade in our full-year 2023 forecast and a downgrade to our full-year 2024 forecast. US labor markets continue to show remarkable strength. While the degree of tightness is moderating, we don’t expect to see job losses materialize until the end of 2023. On inflation, we expect to see progress over the coming quarters, but the path will be bumpy. We forecast one final 25 bps hike by the Fed and no rate cuts until 2024.