Unseasonably warm weather boosted economic activity in January, but several February indicators suggest that the economy will continue to soften. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has triggered alarm about financial stability. While we do not think this risk is immaterial, we do not expect a crisis. Inflation moderated somewhat in February but remains far too high. The Fed will likely hike by 25 bps in March if concerns about financial stability subside. We expect the US economy to slip into a short and mild recession in mid-2023, but the precise timing is difficult to determine.